August 18, 2025 – Bitcoin’s remarkable momentum continues to draw bullish predictions, with asset manager VanEck projecting that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could reach $180,000 before the end of 2025.
In its latest report, VanEck analysts Nathan Frankovitz and Matthew Sigel highlighted stronger derivatives activity, heightened institutional demand, and a record-breaking mining environment as key drivers behind Bitcoin’s ongoing strength.
📈 Futures & Options Fuel Bullish Momentum
Bitcoin briefly touched new all-time highs on August 13, 2025, adding only a modest increase over July’s peak. Yet, beneath the surface, derivatives markets showed far more optimism:
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CME futures basis funding rates surged to 9%, their highest in six months.
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The options call/put ratio hit 3.21x, the strongest since mid-2024.
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Call premiums jumped 37% month-over-month to $792 million, signaling aggressive positioning by traders betting on higher prices.
🏦 Institutional Buying Adds Pressure
Institutional products continued to accumulate Bitcoin at an impressive pace:
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ETPs and ETFs absorbed 54,000 BTC in July.
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Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) added 72,000 BTC, a sharp rise compared to Q2’s total of 131,355 BTC across three months.
While Ethereum’s rising popularity has chipped away at Bitcoin’s market dominance (falling from 64.5% to 59.7%), network activity remains strong. Bitcoin transactions climbed to 12.9 million, the highest since late 2024, with median fees down 13%.
⚡ Mining Hits Records, But Equities Diverge
Bitcoin mining continues to expand, with the global hashrate reaching 902 EH/s in August. Revenue per EH/s jumped to $59,400, the best in eight months.
However, miners’ equity performance diverged:
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Applied Digital (APLD) soared 54%.
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Bitfarms (BITF) gained 16%.
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Cipher Mining (CIFR) slid 22%, while the 13-miner index tracked by VanEck dipped 4%.
U.S. miners now control 31% of global hashrate, marking a record domestic share.
🏢 Bitcoin Treasuries Under Pressure
Corporate treasuries remain heavy holders of Bitcoin, with public companies owning about 951,000 BTC. Still, VanEck noted declining mNAVs (market-adjusted net asset values) for DATs:
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MicroStrategy (MSTR): -16%
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Metaplanet (MTPLF): -62%
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Saylor Moonlight (SMLR): -12%
Lower volatility has made it harder for these firms to issue convertible debt, tightening their ability to grow holdings further.
🎨 Ordinals Activity Surges
On-chain activity is not just monetary. Bitcoin ordinals – NFTs and data inscriptions – spiked 43% month-over-month, with 109,779 minted in 30 days. That’s up 120% year-over-year.
The upcoming October Bitcoin Core upgrade, which removes the 83-byte block data limit, could accelerate this growth, potentially competing with monetary transactions for block space.
🔮 Year-End Predictions
VanEck’s base case remains firmly bullish, with analysts projecting:
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Volatility spikes that could amplify dealer hedging.
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Continued decline in DAT valuations due to financing constraints.
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A Bitcoin year-end target of $180,000, despite a more tempered tone compared to earlier forecasts.
Back in December 2024, VanEck expected Bitcoin to hit $180,000 in Q1 2025 before a correction – a prediction that overshot. This time, with Bitcoin already well above last year’s levels, the same target looks more grounded.
📝 Bottom Line
VanEck’s latest analysis underscores a shifting market: derivatives activity, institutional buying, and record mining growth are propelling Bitcoin upward, while corporate treasuries and some miners struggle to keep pace.
If Bitcoin maintains its trajectory, $180,000 by December is no longer a far-fetched bet — but a growing market consensus.
