A newly signed U.S. executive order could pave the way for trillions in retirement assets to enter the cryptocurrency market, with analysts suggesting even a modest 1% shift from 401(k) plans could propel Bitcoin prices to around $194,000.
Last week’s market momentum already had investors buzzing. Ethereum surged past $4,300 for the first time since 2021, while Bitcoin briefly touched $121,000. Now, a Bitwise report is turning attention to a powerful but overlooked source of potential capital: America’s retirement savings.
According to Bitwise, approximately $12.2 trillion is held in U.S. defined-contribution retirement plans. With about $8.8 trillion in 401(k)s alone — more than double the entire global crypto market’s capitalization of roughly $4 trillion. The firm estimates that even a 1% allocation could inject $87 billion into Bitcoin. Lifting prices to $193,970 based on current levels. A hypothetical 10% shift could push the cryptocurrency near $868,700, though analysts caution this projection assumes linear scaling.
The catalyst came on August 7, when President Donald Trump signed an order instructing the Department of Labor, SEC, and Treasury to expand access to alternative assets in 401(k) plans. Explicitly naming cryptocurrencies alongside real estate and private equity. This move could allow major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity to offer spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs directly in retirement accounts.
Younger investors are already showing strong interest. A 2024 Bank of America study found nearly 50% of wealthy Americans under 44 own crypto, and another 38% want to. Meanwhile, a 2025 YouGov survey reported 42% of Gen Z investors hold digital assets. Compared to just 11% with a traditional retirement account.
However, the road ahead isn’t without challenges. Bitcoin’s history of 70–80% drawdowns clashes with the traditionally conservative goals of retirement investing. Regulatory uncertainty, fiduciary liability, and potentially higher fees could also slow adoption. Experts say plan sponsors are likely to wait for clear ERISA guidance before making crypto a default investment option.
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Still, the market is already responding. U.S. spot crypto ETFs saw record inflows in July. Futures trading hit all-time highs, and liquidity improved. If 401(k) inflows become consistent, analysts believe the crypto market could see reduced volatility, deeper legitimacy, and a stronger base of long-term holders.
